PERT Simulations- How New Excel Functions Enable Transparency.

By -

We have been using complex statistical methods to answer questions like—what the probability of is completing a project in a given timeframe?  



We employed the critical path method, incorporating weighted average task durations and the standard deviation of each task, utilizing the mathematical formulas presented in our Project Management course materials.

The average project duration is the sum of all the average activity times along the critical path. 

Knowing the average project duration and the variances of activities along the critical path allowed us to calculate the probability of completing a project using standard statistical tables. 

If you are not well-versed in statistical concepts, the methods outlined in textbooks for project management may appear overly abstract and complex. In many situations, considering the possibility of alternative critical paths becomes crucial. This can lead to additional abstractions, making it challenging to comprehend.

The new Excel Functions make complex formulas more readable and efficient—a completely transparent and easy solution is achieved. The visualisation tools help us provide validation enabling us to look at the solution at a systems level.

Estimating PERT

    Drawing Frequency Chart





   



Whereas individual Tasks depending upon their 'm' values may be skewed, the estimated Project Durations is represented by normal (symmetrical) distributions  

You can download the Excel file by clicking here. The problem has been solved using both methods. You can attest firsthand to how it renders the old method seem outdated and unnecessary. The fans of the first principal method would prefer graduating to new Excel functions that allow a transparent and versatile method.   

Comments

  1. seep learnJuly 14, 2024 at 11:09 AM

    PERT Simulations
    Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a project management tool used to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a project. PERT simulations involve the use of probabilistic estimates to model project timelines and assess risks, allowing project managers to make more informed decisions.

    Key Components of PERT:
    Task Estimation:

    Each task has three time estimates:
    Optimistic (O): The shortest time in which the task can be completed.
    Pessimistic (P): The longest time the task might take.
    Most Likely (M): The best guess of the time required, assuming normal circumstances.

    IEEE projects for cse

    final year projects for computer science

    Final Year Project Centers in Chennai

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Application for Making Parabolic Camber Board

By -
This Excel Application Calculates the Points for making a parabolic camber Board and draws a chart for the half road section profile. You are required to enter the road width and the % slope. The parabolic shape is given so that the profile is flat at the middle and steeper towards the edges, which is preferred by the fast moving vehicles as they have to frequently cross the crown line during overtaking operations.  on a two lane highway. Download Application here.
Read more

Using Excel conditional formatting for comparative statements

By -
Image
Project Control: Using Excel Conditional Formatting for guiding rate negotiations in Comparative Statement. Project control requires that the various work packages are carried out as planned. Civil construction is typically based on approved building plan and specifications. In view of progressive elaboration of project, Item rate tenders are most prevalent and provide the transparency and flexibility to both the owner and contractor. Projects are always mired with some uncertainty and items and their quantities often deviate. Various known and unknown factors affect the prices quoted by a contractor. Success of the project greatly depend on the Project’s ability to negotiate the contracts at a mutually win-win cost, performance and time frame even in the face of uncertainties. Practice of defining a Project/ work package through a Priority matrix is a handy tool for exploring on the negotiation possibilities. Time Performance
Read more

BILLING WITH MS EXCEL (V-1)

By -
Image
For Construction billing of buildings Many ERP Solutions Require. 1.       Tower wise data (Required). 2.      Unit wise data (Required but may be relaxed ) Additionally the best billing practices (Procedure) require the process to be: 1.        Simple & easy to work with and understand. 2.   Transparent and Electronically Audit-able. 3. The important data such as BOQ item rates and material coefficients etc. should be  tamper-proof . HOW EXCEL CAN HELP? A few of Excel tricks can make you achieve all the above and more. This tutorial shall help you to achieve the best construction billing practices which are essential for effective SAP implementation and utilization of the data for project related time and cost analysis for Project Monitoring & Control. The good news is that you need not change your computer hardware or billing engineer though faster computer would help. It is assumed here that your billing engineer is already preparing the bills using
Read more