Ashutosh

Following professional conferences, I used to write my reflections to my subject matter expert friends. This time, I felt like writing it on my blog. Climate emergency is not limited to my professional friends; it affects everyone. ANGAN (Augmenting Nature by Green Affordable New-Habitat) an International Conference organised by Bureau of Energy and giz during 9-11th September 2019 was a such an event.

Project conception and monitoring involve estimation risks. Estimates are uncertain. Expert judgement is used to quantify these.  However hard we plan, there would always be some random variations. Let us explore the “what if” in the forecast group at data tab.  Scenario manager here is helpful in creating various project (probable) outcomes.   This concept is best understood using an example. Click  here  to download the workbook. You need to solve it to get a grip over it. Do the followings. Use “Goal seek” to create the various break-even quantities Use “data table” to vary two variables at a time Create a “Scenario Summary” with most likely, Optimistic and Pessimistic quantities.    Run Monte Carlo simulation. These tricks allow great possibilities to a problem solver. Your comments to simplify and further explore it are welcome.